Putin keeps a tight rein on his brainy protegé.

YAROSLAVL, Russia - When President Dmitri A. Medvedev of Russia took the lectern here at his annual political forum this month, the circles under his eyes suggested he had barely slept.

The audience was waiting to find out who would be ruling Russia next spring, Mr. Medvedev or Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin - a question that has gripped this country for months. Meanwhile, a plane crash had killed this city's elite hockey team, sending thousands of people, weeping, into the streets.

What would Mr. Medvedev do? Put aside his prepared remarks and speak about the tragedy?

When the moment came, Mr. Medvedev decided to go ahead with his script, a 30-minute discourse on the state's approach to diversity.

The implication seemed clear: Mr. Medvedev was not prepared to fight for his job.

"In any other country he would have used this as an oppor tunity to mobilize people," said Alexander Rahr of the German Council on Foreign Relations. "Either he is not allowed to do this, or he does not want to."

Russia's leadership crisis was set in motion in 2008, when Mr. Putin, the most powerful and popular figure in the country, had to step down because the Russian Constitution limits a president to two consecutive terms. The solution was the "tandem": the younger and more pro-Western Mr. Medvedev became president and Mr. Putin moved to the post of prime minister, though he remained the most influential man in Russian politics.

Each man has indicated that he would like to run for president in 2012, but the two have apparently not been able to reach an agreement. For months, Moscow has been consumed by the stalemate.

At the center of this crisis is the strange spectacle in which Mr. Medvedev - whose powers are enshrined in the Constitution - is forced to wait many months for Mr. Putin's permission to declare his candidacy. In May, the president gathered 800 journalists for a news conference that had all the trappings of a major political announcement. Then he said he could not make one.

Meanwhile, Mr. Putin has been openly gearing up for his own political campaign.

These facts have not been lost on Russia's governing class. The consensus on who will rule Russia next year has been moving slowly but surely in the direction of Mr. Putin.

"The groups around Putin and Medvedev are polarizing," said Aleksei Mukhin, the director of the Center for Political Information in Moscow. "This is about an expression of loyalty to their leaders."

Nikolai Zlobin, an analyst based in Washington, said his own friends in Moscow were so wary of being perceived as endorsing Mr. Medvedev's candidacy that they did not answer his queries about whether they planned to attend Mr. Medvedev's political forum.

"Nobody wants to make a mistake," Mr. Zlobin said. "And every single thing can be interpreted as pro and contra."

There are great differences between Mr. Putin, 58, who grew up brawling with neighborhood toughs, and Mr. Medvedev, 45, the brainy child of two academics. But Mr. Putin singled out the younger man as his successor, in part because of his loyalty.

Though Mr. Put in has never criticized Mr. Medvedev, his campaign activities send the message that he no longer has full confidence in his protégé.

Mr. Put in formed a new poli tical organization, the All-Russia People's Front; he has held campaign appearances, pouring his heart out to steelworkers in Magnitogorsk. Even in Yaroslavl, guests at Mr. Medvedev's political forum were bused past a long series of billboards showing Mr. Putin's face, with the motto "Russia Unites Us."

Mr. Putin's maneuverings, in the end, may simply be attempts to publicly reassert his dominance before extending the tandem arrangement.

But the lesson of this summer is a sobering one: If Mr. Medvedev does stay in the presidency, he will assume a post weaker than the one he first occupied four years ago.

But it was a far more experienced man who took the lectern at Yaroslavl, his face a mask of weariness, and delivered a speech devoid of memorable lines.